There is a saying that economists are trying to predict oil price movements so that meteorologists do not feel ashamed of their work. However, there is a grain of truth in this joke. NES visiting professor Alexander Malanichev who has been studying commodity prices for 30 years, talks about forecasting methods, accuracy of forecasts and ways to improve it. Spoiler: the most important thing is to consider fundamental factors and to listen to the market signals. >>>