On April 3–4, 2025, the 55th NES Research Conference occurred at the NES campus. The two-day event showcased a wide range of academic work conducted by NES students under the supervision of NES professors. Participants presented research across various fields of economics and finance, including trade, macroeconomics, theoretical models, political economy, and machine learning.
The conference opened with a session Mixed Fields chaired by Prof. Davide Cianciaruso. The session featured diverse topics, from the design of bonus contracts for suppliers in two-sided on-demand platforms to the impact of strikes in 1905-1907 on factory workers' wages. The session also included work on export expansion and capital structure in Russian firms, and a study exploring how much we pay for human life.
Session Financial Metrics, Volatility Models, chaired by Prof. Vyacheslav Gorovoy, featured presentations on least squares for drift-robust volatility estimation, Cheyette local volatility model calibration, the role of retail investors in market volatility, and enhanced specifications in the time-varying coefficients volatility modeling.
Session Theory, chaired by Prof. Timur Sobolev, focused on game theory, behavioral economics, and optimal policy design. Students presented research on optimal recommendation policies in a music streaming platform; on a nostalgia bias model; the impact of social norms, paternalism, and trust on pension decisions; and endogenous monitoring in contract design. The day concluded with a session on Applied Metrics, Political Economy, led by Prof. Marat Salikhov. This session explored the effect of source labeling in media on audience engagement; the impact of facial features on electoral success in South Korea; electoral outcomes and protest mobilization in Pakistan; and how continuizing categorical variables can reduce the number of instruments.
The second day started with the session Trade and Sanctions, chaired by Prof. Michele Valsecchi. Students presented timely analyses of the impact of international sanctions on various sectors, including the diamond industry and military spending. The session also discussed the domestic effects of Russian counter-sanctions in 2014, and ownership transitions of foreign firms in Russia. At the next session Macro, chaired by Prof. Irina Denisova, participants explored macroprudential policy effects; adaptation of the Laubach-Williams natural interest rate estimation model for Russia; and the impact of intersectoral relations in the dynamics of the economy.
Session Finance, chaired by Prof. Olga Kuzmina, examined retail investor profitability on the T-Investments platform; the impact of change in the trade settlement cycle on market activity; and market microstructure, including analysis of liquidity and trading at MOEX. At the session Finance, Macro, and Trade, chaired by Prof. Natalia Volchkova, participants tackled themes such as gender quotas on corporate boards; the impact of the capital structure and dividend policy on company profitability; links between global value chains and preferential trade agreements; and human predictive accuracy in the binary options market. At the next session Theory, chaired by Prof. Ozgur Evren, researchers presented game theoretic special models of coalitions in international organizations; optimal recruitment strategies using screening; and mechanisms involving with referrals.
The final session Machine Learning, Forecasting, chaired by Prof. Evgeniy Yakovlev, showcased a theoretical model of consumer preferences on large language models; a comparison of prediction markets and model-based forecasts in US elections; and the use of in-context reinforcement learning for macroeconomic modeling.
The event concluded on a casual note, offering a chance for participants to network and discuss the ideas exchanged throughout the conference.
